The Second Wave
Wednesday 6th May, 2020 – 9:50pm
The idea behind the testing is to contain outbreaks of covid-19 which may happen after lockdown restrictions are lifted or eased. The plan is to test people and then urgently trace others with whom the infected person has been in close contact. This will stop a second wave of the disease. But it depends on tests being turned around really fast. Currently tests are taking 72 hours, which is not quickly enough for this plan to work.
But, sadly a new fact is emerging which renders the containment plan null and void. Many tests are much slower than 72 hours.
My daughter had a temperature spike on Wednesday of last week. A test was done on Thursday when her temperature had returned to normal. If we get the result of that test tomorrow, that will be a week later. Meanwhile she has been in isolation, done seven days without any further symptoms and returned to her normal environment. But did she have Covid? Dunno. We might find out tomorrow. But then again we might not as the lab in question say they are overwhelmed and cannot cope with the demand. There are long delays, but no-one can say how long. (Added on 8th May. Eight days later and we still have not heard. How long O Lord, how long? Added on 9th May. Still nothing. Sunday 10th May. Finally we hear. They've lost the test! So they're doing a new one! Back to square one.)
Applying this real world experience to the trace and containment plan, tracing people over a week after they might have been infected by a Covid-infected person is not going to work. Outbreaks will simply and sadly, not be contained. We are definitely in for a second wave in the Autumn or sooner. A lot more people will die. Even if I'm wrong, it would be prudent to prepare yourself for it.
Lockdown, which is our only weapon, must therefore continue, but we know it is about to be eased. That's a mistake and encourages a Covid resurgence.
••••••••••••
And just to keep you in touch with things...here are a few of the more notable landmarks we as a nation have passed today.
1) The UK is the first European country to pass 30,000 deaths from coronavirus. Only the United States of America has more deaths.
And inevitably that means that....
2) The UK is the European country with the most deaths from coronavirus, exceeding those of Italy, Spain, and France.
3) Deaths in care homes continue to rise, even though hospital deaths are falling.
4) For the third day running, fewer than 100,000 tests have been done a day when we all know testing is vital for controlling the spread of the disease. We've known that for an awful long time. And anyway the 100,000 mark was achieved only on one day by sending out thousands of home testing kits which may never be used. So actually, the figure of 100,000 tests a day has never yet been achieved, and doesn't look like it will for ages.
5) And a quick quiz question...which country do you think has the lowest number of tests per 1,000 people: Lithuania, Italy, Germany, the USA or the UK?
I don't need to tell you, because you already know the answer.
The idea behind the testing is to contain outbreaks of covid-19 which may happen after lockdown restrictions are lifted or eased. The plan is to test people and then urgently trace others with whom the infected person has been in close contact. This will stop a second wave of the disease. But it depends on tests being turned around really fast. Currently tests are taking 72 hours, which is not quickly enough for this plan to work.
But, sadly a new fact is emerging which renders the containment plan null and void. Many tests are much slower than 72 hours.
My daughter had a temperature spike on Wednesday of last week. A test was done on Thursday when her temperature had returned to normal. If we get the result of that test tomorrow, that will be a week later. Meanwhile she has been in isolation, done seven days without any further symptoms and returned to her normal environment. But did she have Covid? Dunno. We might find out tomorrow. But then again we might not as the lab in question say they are overwhelmed and cannot cope with the demand. There are long delays, but no-one can say how long. (Added on 8th May. Eight days later and we still have not heard. How long O Lord, how long? Added on 9th May. Still nothing. Sunday 10th May. Finally we hear. They've lost the test! So they're doing a new one! Back to square one.)
Applying this real world experience to the trace and containment plan, tracing people over a week after they might have been infected by a Covid-infected person is not going to work. Outbreaks will simply and sadly, not be contained. We are definitely in for a second wave in the Autumn or sooner. A lot more people will die. Even if I'm wrong, it would be prudent to prepare yourself for it.
Lockdown, which is our only weapon, must therefore continue, but we know it is about to be eased. That's a mistake and encourages a Covid resurgence.
••••••••••••
And just to keep you in touch with things...here are a few of the more notable landmarks we as a nation have passed today.
1) The UK is the first European country to pass 30,000 deaths from coronavirus. Only the United States of America has more deaths.
And inevitably that means that....
2) The UK is the European country with the most deaths from coronavirus, exceeding those of Italy, Spain, and France.
3) Deaths in care homes continue to rise, even though hospital deaths are falling.
4) For the third day running, fewer than 100,000 tests have been done a day when we all know testing is vital for controlling the spread of the disease. We've known that for an awful long time. And anyway the 100,000 mark was achieved only on one day by sending out thousands of home testing kits which may never be used. So actually, the figure of 100,000 tests a day has never yet been achieved, and doesn't look like it will for ages.
5) And a quick quiz question...which country do you think has the lowest number of tests per 1,000 people: Lithuania, Italy, Germany, the USA or the UK?
I don't need to tell you, because you already know the answer.
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